2023 Home Prices Are the Worst Declines Done?

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2023 Home Prices...Are The Worst Declines Done_

[00:00:00] Hey, real estates fans Alice Lema here, broker John L Scott in beautiful southern Oregon with another edition of The Weekly podcast. And today we're asking a market question, are the worst of the price declines behind us? I've got a chart from K C M and also some local Southern Oregon statistics that may be indicating we're bottoming or at the bottom.

Some markets in the United States are actually perking up already. So KCM is keeping current matters. It's a favorite website here on the podcast, and you can see that month over month since last summer where the interest rate really started affecting our home prices. The interest rate increases quite a few of 'em in the last year and a half.

Then you can see they're starting to pop up a little bit, and we've got three different reports showing a little uptick in February. K Schiller, national, F [00:01:00] H A FA, and Core Logic are all showing some upticks now in our Southern Oregon market. We're tracking year over year, but we're tracking week to week.

We're looking for the little micro changes. And in Klamath Falls year over year Klamath County was down 7% in prices from this time last year to an average. This is single family home average price in Klamath County. $321,154, and the number of solds in Klamath County are down 43% from this time last year. But the number of listings are only down 4%.

So we're watching this very carefully in all three counties, and we'll talk about Josephine County and Jackson County next, but by watching all three week to week that, I know that seems a little obsessive, but this is how we start finding the micro changes to, to watch if they get legs.

The other thing we're doing week to week is [00:02:00] watching if there's any foreclosures that are closing any short sales. And we're also tracking the million dollar sales because a million dollar sales are also an indicator in that luxury market, because in southern Oregon, a million dollars is way more money than it is in, in the big urban areas.

Our luxury market actually starts at like 850k. So if we're starting to get closings in the million dollar mark then, that's telling us that there's a little bit of a change starting to happen or trying to happen. Now for Klamath County this week, we don't have any million dollar closings, but we also don't have any foreclosures closed and we don't have any short sale closed.

So that Klamath Falls area usually has a pretty good appreciation because its price point is lower, and especially for the locals and the relo, they can get some really good deals. So Klamath County is definitely one to watch.

Josephine County the prices year over year for this week are [00:03:00] down 12%. The average price in Josephine County now for single Family Home, $425,883,000. That's still a lot of money to us locals. But we're gonna watch that week to week as well. The number of solds down year over year in Joseph County is 57%. So there's just not very many transactions happening proportion until last year.

And what that starts to tell us is that we might be in the beginning of another seller's market now. We're not thinking it's gonna be as crazy as it was you know, before the interest rate changes, but that's what we're trying to track right now. So, going back to Josephine County, the number of listings in Josephine County are down 20%. That's, that's. A real bonafide shortage. And again, in Josephine County, we don't have any, we have zero foreclosures closed this week. We have zero short sales closed this week, and [00:04:00] we don't have any million dollar closings in Josephine County. So this is starting to look to me like a stabilization. What we're watching on the national level with the KCM graph that we just had up is showing an uptick.

We're waiting for that to start to show in Southern Oregon. So finishing up with Jackson County prices year over year are down 8%. That's not that much. The average price in Josephine County this week compared to this week, last year, $488,167. Our number of single family residential homes sold in Jackson County are down 44%.

I'm telling you, it's, it's starting to look like a shortage. And we've been talking about that all winter, but it's really starting to look dire here. The number of listings in Jackson County year over year are only down 8%, so that's starting to look like we may be [00:05:00] leveling off in Jackson County as well.

The foreclosures closed this week are zero in Jackson County. The full short sales closed in Jackson County or Zero, but we did have one million dollar sale in Jackson County, million dollar or up, and that was in Central Point on Scenic, and it's sold for 1 million, $51,000. So, If you compare what's happening in southern Oregon to the national it's a little bit unfair because Southern Oregon is on its own, a destination location.

We predict that we are gonna have a fairly good appreciation, at least a normal appreciation by the time we finish 2023, but we'll have to see. So there's the question. Are the worst of the home price declines? Behind us. Are we leveling off? We'll see, it's starting to uptake nationally. We're just watching week to week to see what happens here in southern Oregon.

So again, if you have ever thought of selling or at least in the last five years, or you're still [00:06:00] waiting from the covid to move cuz you really don't love your house. Then call me, text me (541) 301-7980. There's still more buyers than there are sellers in most of the price points. We're starting to get sales in our luxury markets.

We had three, I think last week in the million dollar price range. So look to see if Southern Oregon gets some legs and we start to have a little more sellers market environment over the summer. Okay? In the meantime, subscribe to the channel. Give us a, like, send it to your friends and reach out to me again if you need anything over the holiday weekend.

Hug those you love. We'll see you next time. Bye now.