NAR 5 Yr House Predictions

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NAR 5 Year Home Price Predictions

[00:00:00] Well, Hey, real estate fans. Welcome back to the podcast for Southern Oregon housing. I'm Alice Lema, a broker at John L. Scott real estate. And today we're going to talk about the next five year predictions for home prices because the national association of realtors chief economist, Dr. Lawrence Yun weighs in on what's going to happen in the next five years.

And the reason I wanted to bring this now is because it's very tumultuous right now out there in real estate land. We're still in a seller's market, even though some sellers don't feel like it. There's still a few more buyers than sellers. But it's tough going for those buyers because of the interest rates.

And then there's also low inventory and that low inventory is what is giving us the sellers, the seller's edge, if you will. So despite the interest rates, we still have a fairly good market for home sales, even though the number [00:01:00] of transactions is lower. And again, that's because of inventory.

But Dr. Lawrence Yun, who is the chief economist of National Association of Realtors, data driven. He's an economist. We really like listening to him. He's saying that he's expecting there to be a more normalized market with some appreciation between now, which is kind of the end of 2023. 2023 is wrapping up and 2028.

And we're looking at more of a balanced market five years out. And we're also looking at appreciation growing in homeownership between now and 2028. There could be some price declines between now and maybe 2025, but not a crash. Again, it has to do with the supply and demand. There's just not enough supply.

So we're seeing some small price drops in our market here in Southern Oregon. [00:02:00] But we're also watching some of the neighborhoods start to buoy back, start to come, come back up. If you're in escrow right now, or you're on the market right now, you may have to do another, if you haven't done any price changes, then consider one.

If you've done one or two, you might need another 1 percent to 3% price change to get a buyer into escrow and to close in the next 30 to 60 days. Other than that, we're looking at anybody who's making purchases during this time in the high interest rate era. We're looking for some lowering of the interest rates.

Maybe now it's going to be another year or 2 out, but we'll have to see, you know, the world, the world is a weird place. There's a lot of stuff going on and. The things that are happening overseas and the things that are happening in our economy here do [00:03:00] affect the housing market. So, if you're on the market as a seller right now, look at your price changes. Look at your timing.

Winter's coming. Southern Oregon is kind of a seasonal market. If you can wait and you, and you want to do that, then take your house off the market. You can, you can just still live in it. You can close it up and go somewhere warm for the winter. You could put in a tenant. If you still want to get your transaction done, then listen to the feedback that you're getting from your showings.

Consider doing a little bit of a price adjustment and just get it done and be somewhere else for the holidays. If you're buying, then Yes, I know, there's not as many choices as we're used to, but it's better than it was. And again, looking at the 5 year forecast for housing from Dr. Lawrence, we still look at a [00:04:00] positive growth, even though it will be slower and more sustainable over the next 5 years.

So it still looks like a good time to buy. Plus you get to live in a house. If you're not owning a house right now, then you get to own a house. And if you own a house right now and you're selling and buying something else, then you get to, to be in more of the, the property that fits you right now and fits your lifestyle.

And that's really what home ownership does for us. It gives us the room that we need. It gives us the neighborhood we need. And it gives us wealth building because real estate is a wealth building activity. So that's our podcast for the week. Give me a call, give me a text 541-301-7980. And let's talk about what we're going to do with your next real estate step.

Okay. Have a great week. We'll talk to you next time. Bye now.