Are Home Prices Normalizing?

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Are Home Prices Normalizing?

Alice Lema: [00:00:00] Well, Hey, real estate fans. Welcome back to the weekly podcast today. We're going to talk about price movement because 2023 has been brutal. And we have had a little bit of softening, at least in our market and other markets across the United States. But I want to point out a chart that we got from, KCM, keeping current matters, one of our favorite websites.

And it's, talking about the 2023 price changes. And I want to show you the 49 year average compared to what's happening here. We are at the end of 2023. You can see in this first chart that home prices usually go up in the spring. That's a cyclical thing, especially in Southern Oregon, cause we're very seasonal.

And so you can see that that is about how the prices move up during the spring and then down. In the fall and winter as inventory gets lower, but we've had low [00:01:00] inventory like, all year, so here, let's compare the 49 year seasonal average with 2023. And I want to point out right around July the market starts evening out and this is what we experienced this summer that it, it started, leveling off.

And in fact, I think we were talking about how I thought the market was bottoming out. And I think here we are now, October, early November, that this is, this is where we're gonna be. And we'll gently go up into 2024 with a very sustainable, maybe 3 percent appreciation, maybe as much as five, but I'm thinking it's going to be under five, but we'll see.

So we're looking to finish 2023 with a little bit of about, and then on into 2024 with a sustainable growth rate, at least in Southern Oregon. But this chart is super revealing because it, [00:02:00] it kind of explains what we were experiencing during the summer. And then, as the numbers come out for the end of the summer and early fall, I bet we see that we're at a normal growth. Period.

We've been waiting for that to happen. We have to wait and then look behind because all these charts and numbers are backward looking, but we do have a very interesting phenomena happening right now where we're doing CMAs and updating people's valuations as they get ready to put their houses on the market in early next year.

And we're noticing that not only they're not very many homes available on the market, there's a bunch that are pending and even more that have closed just in the last three or four months. So whatever happened during the summer, I think it's bringing us back into more normal numbers for the end of the year, but we'll wait and see cause we're still a month away from that in [00:03:00] the meantime, if you've got some questions or curiosity about what's going on in your neighborhood or your real estate life, give me a call. Give me a text. My number is 541-301-7980.

Let's talk about what we're going to do with your real estate and look at this chart and you can send this to some of your friends because I think it explains what it's been feeling like out there for most of the summer. And that the prices have not gone down very much and that people are scooping up these properties and Moving. We have a lot of people moving and not very many people on the market.

So sellers think about going now, you won't have any competition, but you would be on during the holidays. But there's some, some good points about that too your house will look great, right? So in the meantime, give me a call. Give me a text. Have a great week. Bye now.