Five Economists Predict Housing Market for 2022

Full Video Transcript Below

[00:00:00] Well, good afternoon. Real estate fans, Alice Lema here, broker John LScott with our last podcast for 2021. Yeah, so here we go. It's another really interesting one. It's more data. I love data and we've got five national economists making predictions. For housing 2022. It's going to be great.

[00:00:21] So before we jump into that, just want to give you a chance to please subscribe to the channel, like the channel, send me some questions, some comments, and also share it with your friends and neighbors. All this educational information is not only helpful, but it also gives you some real concrete information to pass to your friends and family. When you're together, your neighbors barbecues coming in the future. I'm assuming we're allowed to have barbecues again. Just a little joke there, but yeah, we want to spread this information around. I also want to be your agents, so keep that in mind too, but enough of the sales pitch let's get on with the five economists national leading economists weighing in on 2022 housing predictions.

[00:01:09] Okay, here we go. First one, Odeta Kushi deputy chief economist first American. Now a lot of people are familiar with first American and they're a huge corporation. And they're also here in Medford, currently, my favorite favorite title company. And they're predicting interest rates to go up to 3.7 by the end of 2022, which is still like ridiculously low.

[00:01:34] However, a lot of folks received mortgages in the high twos and low threes in the last 12 months. And the difference in the payment, especially the bigger, the bigger mortgages, the difference in the payment can be the difference between buying something and not buying something. So here we go. The feds have been threatening to do this. Odeta Kushi deputy chief of Congress first American that's that prediction. Interest rates will be ending at 3.7 by this time next year.

[00:02:07] The next one is Danielle Hale, chief economist of realtor.com. You know, the famous website competing with Zillow. And Danielle Hale is saying that it's gonna make it harder because of interest rates. It's going to be an affordability issue. It's going to cause some crunch for the younger buyers in particular to find their first home. And they should probably get on that.

[00:02:30] I agree with that actually. And then the other thing Danielle says that I find fascinating is more than 45 million millennials. Let that sink in more than 45 million millennials are within the first time home buying ages of 26 to 35 as we go into 2022. We got to remember, this is a huge generation. Danielle Hale, the chief economist realtor.com thinks that this market surge of millennials, first time home buyers, are going to keep the market active and competitive. So we'll keep an eye on that and see if.

[00:03:09] Number three, one of my personal favorite economists, Dr. Lawrence Yoon. He's the chief economist national association of realtors and NAR, but I would, I would be a total groupie for Dr. Lawrence Yun, even if he wasn't associated with the realtors. He's very smart. He's also funny in kind of a dry way. And I don't know if you remember back in 2009 little tangent here, he actually came to Medford in the middle of the crash. It was a very somber, sad time for a lot of agents and a lot of clients.

[00:03:39] And he stood up there and he predicted a housing shortage and we all sat there and said, Okay. And it came true. So love, love, love Dr. Lawrence and let's get on with his prediction. He's saying with more inventory here in the market, there's going to be a lessening of intensity. The multiple offers situation will ease. Home prices will continue to rise according to him bet at a slower pace.

[00:04:05] So my personal experience in the quote unquote combat zone, as we lovingly call it. Is that that's kind of what's happening here. The prices are softening. We don't have as many multiple offer situations. And at least in my opinion, in the houses our prices are softening.

[00:04:19] But Dr. Lawrence Yun the chief economist of the national association of realtors, he thinks that the prices will still rise just at a lower pace. Okay. So maybe normal appreciation. We'll see, we'll keep our eye on that.

[00:04:32] Number four is George Ratiu. He's the manager of economic research of realtor.com.

[00:04:40] All this information, by the way, is coming from KCM, keeping current matters. And I swear, I do read other websites and I will bring you more variety. It's just, these guys are so spot on all the time KCM. So I do, I do like to pass it on to you guys. But the manager of economic [email protected], realtor.com person is saying. We expect a growing number of homeowners to bring their properties to the market, taking pressure off high prices and offering buyers more options. I agree with that too. So realtor.com. We'll see, we'll keep our eye on both.

[00:05:17] And finally, number five, Mark Fleming, chief economists of first American. So we've got to first American to realtor.com and then Dr. Lawrence Yoon of the NAR. So Mark Fleming, chief economist at first American, strong demographic demand will continue to act as the wind in the housing markets sails like S a I L. And so there's a graphic that Melissa's putting up. So you can read this yourself, but what Mark Fleming is saying, I believe is that there's still a draw, a big demand, and that's still going to keep the housing market strong.

[00:05:54] So I don't know. We'll just have to see. And, and I'm, I'm saying this kind of hesitantly because this week. It was what I call quiet week. Supposedly usually the time between Christmas and new year's, there's usually nothing going on. And a lot of us get all of our 20, 22 stuff going and, or we take a vacation.

[00:06:14] It's usually really quiet, but do you know the parking lot, at least at first American title almost every day, you could not find a place to park. There were so many transactions, so many signings, it was incredible. And looking into January, a lot of us have like a huge, huge amount of transactions coming into January, which again is normally kind of quiet.

[00:06:35] So I don't know. Part of it could be just the last mopping up of the sellers market. The other part could be that we are scrambling to grab properties before the interest rates change. It could also be, finally people are putting their house on the market and boom, we've got something to choose from.

[00:06:53] So yeah, so we'll keep an eye on all of these leading national economists predictions for 2022. And then I have my own as you know, the most opinionated woman in Southern Oregon. But I'm also happy to be wrong if I'm wrong, I will totally own it, but I think we're going to have a lot of transactions in 2022.

[00:07:11] I think the prices are going to be down, but they're going to level off. If there is appreciation, it's going to be normal. And depending on your neighborhood in Southern Oregon, we're looking at 3%, 6%, 9%. That's just kind of where we bounced around in, in Southern Oregon. So, but there you go. And goodbye, 20, 21.

[00:07:30] We're so, so thankful to be looking forward to having some normalcy, whatever that looks like. Let's let's have something be less dramatic, a little more stable, a little more quiet, a little more predictable and not just in housing, but the economy and just the world in general. Just be nice to have a breather.

[00:07:48] Right? So anyway, Alice Lema broker, John L. Scott here in lovely Southern Oregon, wishing you the best of the new year and the podcast will be back next week. So don't worry about that. Then in the meantime, if you've got some questions or you want to list your house or. Or do an investment. Just give me a call.

[00:08:07] Give me a text 541-301-7980. Thank you for listening. Have a beautiful weekend. See you next week. Bye now.