Housing Market 2022 - Four Predictions

Full Video Transcript Below

[00:00:00] Alice Lema: Well, good morning. Real estate fans, Alice Lema here, broker John L. Scott, beautiful Southern Oregon with another edition of the weekly podcast. Welcome back. Today we're going to have four predictions for our spring housing market, 2022, because the world is different. And when the world becomes too different, we change our predictions.

[00:00:20] So so stay tuned. It's going to be a great few minutes. You're going to want to have this information before you make any more decisions about buying or selling real estate in your world. Before we get started on that one, give you a quick minute to please subscribe to the channel. Give us a like, give us a thumbs up. Send me some questions and some comments, and please feel free to share with your friends and family. This is an educational series. We want people to have this information so they can ponder it in their own real estate life and make better decisions.

[00:00:50] Okay. So with that behind us, let's go on with our four predictions for the spring housing market, 2022. And again, a lot of this information came from one of my favorite websites kCM keeping current matters. So the first one is not such a surprise. The mortgage rates will continue to rise. So we've had some rate increases. It's been absorbed. A lot of us have adjusted the budget. A lot of the buyers have adjusted the budget and a lot of the sellers have come to realize they can't just charge anything because then their buyers cannot they can't afford the payment. So with that in mind that wasn't too much of a surprise. If there are more increases between now and June, that's kind of how I'm lining out the spring market March. We're in March now, March to June then that is not going to catch anybody by surprise.

[00:01:38] Number two, inventory or supply to increase. So this is something I've been noticing. Anyway, at least in Southern Oregon, we have more listings now than we did this time last year. But overall, nationally, the amount of houses available for sale to increase between now and the end of May. And again, please remember we have two years backlog as sellers.

[00:02:00] We have people that are just been chomping at the bit and waiting till they felt some level of comfort with COVID or it was behind us. And then in Southern Oregon, we also had the fires. So a lot of pressure for sellers to finally get on the market. They're sick of everything. They just want to move. So look for a lot of sellers to come on the market. So that's number two inventory to increase supply supply, to increase.

[00:02:26] Number three. And this caught me by surprise. I had to think about it for a little bit. Prices to continue to rise. Now, how could that be? Because it would be logical if there's more supply and the interest rates are going up, that the prices will come down.

[00:02:42] Well, what they're saying is the demand, the buyer demand is so strong they're looking for little increase, minimal increase, but they're looking for increase. They're looking for the trajectory to go up, not leveling off or down, which is kind of where it was headed before. And remember, we've got a couple of unexpected batches of buyers that are jumping in the market now. Some of them are the inflation hedgers. Cause if you're old like me, remember seventies, eighties, nineties some of the things you could do with your money was put it in real estate. And, you know, we just saw that. We saw a huge increase in, in value and prices and housing during the COVID shutdown.

[00:03:19] Well, that is what inflation is. Kind of increases inflation. So if you were lucky enough to be a homeowner during the shutdown, then you benefited greatly from that kind of inflation. But going forward, they're still gonna, they're predicting, they're still going to be some price increases. So that's a little bit of a game changer on strategy, whether you're buying or selling.

[00:03:40] If the prices are really going to keep going up a little bit, then we just need to work that into the process that we're undergoing, whether we're buying or selling, because that is that's different than what we were thinking was gonna happen. Cause we were thinking a little softening and little stabilizing. Well, if that's not the case, then we need to adjust our plans.

[00:04:01] Number four, the impact of rising interest rates does not necessarily bring home prices down. And again, I have a chart from a Freddie Mac that was provided by KCM. And it looks historically through some spots in the, in the economy, October 93, January 96, October 98, June, 2003 and so on. And they're showing that the prices, the home prices really did not adjust downward because of interest rates going up. So again, just the fact that interest rates go up, we cannot automatically assume that the prices will go down because quite frankly, historically, that is not what happens.

[00:04:48] So take a good look at this chart. It really helps explain and of the process an effect of interest rates and inflation and the the government trying to deal with the inflation. And it just, it just meant that the housing prices still went up. So that was, that was very interesting. So with all that said, whether you're buying or selling you might want to really think about your timing.

[00:05:15] Some people have control of the timing, some don't, but if you're buying, you may want to act soon and it's not just the interest rates now it's the price is the price is going to keep going up. There's no reason to, if you find the property that works for you and it's in your budget, then it's a great chance to just lock it in and move on with your life.

[00:05:34] Now, if you're selling well, there's going to be a lot more competition. If we get that many listings on the market in the next few months and throughout the year, then then you might want to jump on it now, before it gets too competitive. However, having said that the best reason to sell your house is because you want to move. You want your life to be different and you know how that's going to fit in with the asset you now own.

[00:05:58] So if you're sitting around and trying to decide what to do, give me a call, give me a text. 541-301-7980. Let's talk about timing. Let's talk about market conditions. Let's talk about where you're going to go and how to make all that happen. And let's talk about if it's really right for you to buy or sell right now with, with the updated predictions for 2022. You know, it looks like it could be a good time for buyers and sellers, but let's talk about what it really means to you.

[00:06:25] Okay. Alice, Lema saying have a great weekend and I'll catch you next week. Bye now.