Real Estate Show with Medford Community Development

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Housing Market Predictions 2023

[00:00:00] Hey, real estate fans. Alice Lema, here, broker John L Scott, beautiful Southern Oregon with another edition of the Weekly podcast. Today we're gonna talk about 2023 predictions. I've got a handful of economists, national people that are gonna weigh in, and then we're gonna talk about our local 2022 stats.

We finally got the numbers, so you ready? Go 2023. Housing predictions experts weigh in on the next 12 months. I bet you're gonna be surprised. Let's start with Mark Fleming of first American Title. Mark Fleming is the chief economist and I quote, the housing market once adjusted to the new normal of higher interest rates will benefit from continued strong demographic driven demand relative to overall long run shortage of supply.

Mark Fleming, chief Economist, first American title, national Smart Guy. He thinks [00:01:00] the buyers are gonna adjust to the new interest rates, to the new payments, and we're still gonna have a little bit of a shortage. So the market's gonna stabilize but still keep up. Not a decline. Interesting, isn't it? Let's hear from Lawrence Yune, chief Economist of National Association of Realtors says, and I quote, after a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally.

Half the country may experience small price gain while the other half may see slight price decline. Okay, so Dr. Lawrence Yune, chief Economist at National Association of Realtors, he's looking for a stabilization and stabilizing means a little bit down a little bit up. Just very, very small low volatility. That's kind of what he's saying.

Wanna check in with Danielle Hale, chief [email protected], and I quote, buyers will not face the extreme competition that was commonplace over the last few years. That's Danielle Hale, chief [00:02:00] [email protected]. So there we've got three really smart people that make predictions.

They're all looking toward a stabilization for 2023, but we're not Nostradamus. We'll find out. That's why we do this every week, is to see what's going on and if something's gonna change, we're gonna notice it. Okay? Okay. In the meantime, let's give you some news from Southern Oregon specifically. We've got Jackson and Josephine County today.

I don't have Klamath yet, but wanna talk about Jackson County. So this time last year, the start of 2020, two we had days on market. That's kind of how we, it's one of the indicators we have for the housing market. The days on market for Jackson County were one and a half months of inventory coming into January of 2022.

A month and a half a supply of residential houses in Jackson [00:03:00] County starting 2022. But hold on to your hat cuz finishing 2022 we had over four months. So that is a huge increase, but that's kind of what the feds were, were aiming for. They were trying to normalize, stabilize the market housing in particular.

So we're looking at four months of inventory instead of one and a half. Just a reminder that's still in the zone. Four to six months is still considered a normal neutral market. Jackson County prices up 5% from 2021, after all those price reductions that went the prices went way, way up, and then there were all those price reductions last summer and into the fall. We're still up 5% appreciation in Jackson County finishing 2022 with an average residential price, $489,000.

Josephine County going into 2022, going into January, [00:04:00] 2022, had 2.3 months of inventory for residential Josephine County finishing 2022 over four months, same as Jackson County. And so four months of inventory in Josephine County finishing 2022 up from two months of inventory starting 2022 in the average. In Josephine County for 2022 was up 5% as well to a whopping $445,000 per residential house average in Josephine County. So there you go folks. We finished the year, we made money on our residential property. The predictions for 2023 do not look that bad, but you know, these experts are wrong sometimes.

So that's why we do this show every week. We'd love for you to subscribe to the channel. Give me a like, give me a thumbs up. Appreciate you following and sending all this information to your friends and family. It's an educational endeavor, and as [00:05:00] always, I want to be your agent. Great listing agent, great investment portfolio builder and great buyers agent.

So call me, text me, (541) 301-7980, and let's talk about your real estate future. Okay? In the meantime, hug those you love. We'll see you next week. Bye now.