How Healthy Is the Housing Market?

How Healthy Is the Housing Market?

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How Healthy is the Housing Market?

Alice Lema: [00:00:00] Hey, real estate fans. Welcome back to the weekly podcast. I'm Alice Lema, a broker at John O. Scott real estate in Southern Oregon. And this week we're going to talk about how the market is shockingly better than a lot of people realize why, because the data is showing us. So so here we have the median days on market fewer than right before the pandemic.

Why is that? Significant because in 2018 and 2019, the days on market nationally were right around one month. And if you remember the average days on market for a normal neutral market, which we have not seen in like forever, a normal neutral market is what? Four to six months. That's 120 days to 180 days. That means in that normal neutral market of 120, 180 days, the buyers are not in charge. The [00:01:00] sellers are not in charge. Everybody's even. Okay it's about four to six months to sell a home. That's the normal average. So before the pandemic, 2018, 2019, we were coming out of a hyper acceleration as part of the recovery from the crash.

So we've got like all these dominoes going way back to 2005 leading up to the crash in 2007, 2009, depending on what neighborhood you were in when you crashed. So anyway, fast forwarding 2018, 2019, we were going into recovery, finishing recovery, and then the pandemic hit. So right before the pandemic the market was cycling pretty fast at about one month and Southern Oregon during the pandemic became one of the it girls.

It was one of the places when people were Googling showed up as a great place, great lifestyle, international airport to amazingly huge [00:02:00] hospitals and the I 5 corridor. All of a sudden everybody came. Well, and if you were from a big city, you thought our prices were like really, really low. So 2020, 2021, and here's the chart. You can see these are the days on market. So we went from about a month to below a month.

And here we are now, 2022, 2023, we're right around 3 weeks again. So there's a lot of bad news going on and in the, all the different financial markets and and regular newscasts. And you got to be careful because you got to listen to exactly what data they're reporting on. And I'm not saying that they're blowing it out of proportion. I'm just saying you have to listen carefully. So here's a chart from this is National Association of Realtors. So that is a very good source. And we can see that the trend is shorter days on market. So what does this mean to buyers and sellers in Southern Oregon?

[00:03:00] Well, here you go. If you're a seller, this is ever the more reason to put your house on the market. And if you can do it between now, which is kind of the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, you will not have very much competition. Why? Because a lot of sellers are waiting until April, May, June. If you don't have to wait for that timing, now is better.

Traditionally you grab the, the winter buyers that are still looking for something and you just don't have as many people to compete with. The buyers have fewer selection and they're, they're more serious. I'm telling you buyers that are out stumping for a house in southern Oregon, whether this time of year, they really want to buy something.

So I'm still making a case to to be a seller right now and into 2024. If you're a buyer heads up, the market's not as soft as everybody's saying. And this idea that there might be a big crash coming, I don't know. We're going to end [00:04:00] 2023 with a little, up in appreciation. We didn't have as big of a price decline as we thought we were going to when we did our predictions this time last year.

So heads up if you're buying. I'm not going to say don't be too picky, but the prices are a little bit soft right now, but they're not super, super soft. And with these kinds of days on market numbers, they're bound, the prices are bound to go up. Plus there's the temptation that the Federal Reserve Bank really might reduce the interest rates.

They've come down a little bit, but again, I'm not Nostradamus. I don't know. And the feds mess with us all the time. So, but I'm just really concerned about the buyers. Cause I, I have quite a few buyers and they, they seem to be dragging their feet because they're waiting for another dip in the market.

Here you go, folks. I'm just not sure. I'm just not sure there's going to be one. And I've been calling bottom for a few months, but you know, [00:05:00] I'm basing it on the data and I think we have stabilized at least in Southern Oregon. So there you go. That's my podcast for the week. I'd really love it, if you would subscribe, not only is it great to get this automatically, so you don't have to go back in and click.

But we're we're trying to up our subscriber rate. So if you have subscribed, thank you. Appreciate it. And thanks to all of you for your support this year. We all really appreciate you. My team and I appreciate you. My family and I appreciate you. They are a lot of my team, but yeah. And I hope you have as wonderful of a holiday as possible and stick with us for 2024 because we've got some really interesting real estate stuff coming. And we will be reporting on it every week.

In the meantime, give me a call. Give me a text. I'm actually out showing houses and taking listings over the holidays. My number is 541-301-7980.

And thank you again for all your support this year. We'll see you next week. Bye now.


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