Is Real Estate Crash Coming in 2023?

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Is a Crash Coming in 2023 in Real Estate?

[00:00:00] Well, good morning real estate fans. Alice Lema, here, broker John L. Scott, and beautiful Southern Oregon with another edition of the Weekly podcast. Today we're gonna talk about if there's a crash coming or not. I know a lot of, lot of opinions out there, but I just got an update from National Association's realtor, Dr. Lawrence Yune, chief Economist, and he had some interesting points to make about not only 2023 but beyond. Cuz here we are at a prediction time, right End of the year. So it's gonna be a great podcast. Before we jump into that, I wanna give you a quick second to subscribe to the channel. Give us a, like, send us some comments send us some questions.

We're here for you. If you wanna speak to me privately, personally, you can reach out. 541-301-7980. Happy to help you with your real estate needs. Okay, so is there a crash? Yes or no. So today I got to listen to Dr. Lawrence Yune, who's the chief Economist for the National Association of [00:01:00] Realtors.

And he had a very interesting presentation talking about is there a crash coming in home prices? And let me just tell you, the spoiler. He does not think so. And here's why we're gonna look at this chart right here posted by the National Association of Realtors key variables in deciding if there is an economic crash coming in the home sector.

First is job cuts. Payroll jobs, total jobs, subprime loan, five year accumulative to the new home construction before the crash inventory on the market, mortgage, delinquency, and homes in foreclosure. This is a super succinct list of things to check if you're trying to decide on timing. Now, again, I always say timing the market is not a good idea.

Even professionals have trouble doing it and it's not really what the overall real estate [00:02:00] goal is. The goal is to get the assets in your name and start accumulating rent on the home that you love, that you get to live in, or whatever your financial and lifestyle goal was. It's you don't get to start enjoying that until you have the asset in your name.

So my personal opinion is, When you have a, a real estate project that you find what you can afford that meets your needs, and you buy it and you don't look back. Okay. That's kind of my personal philosophy for when I buy things. But if you are looking forward and trying to, I mean, everybody wants a good deal, I get it.

But if you're looking forward, then you wanna have data that's accurate. And right now you can see in this in this graph from the National Association of Realtors, that we just don't have the economic elements that would lead us to [00:03:00] believe that there was a significant downturn coming. In fact, On the next graph I wanna show you also from the National Association of Realtors, they have a trend from 1970 home prices projecting out to 2050 and very bold, I think, to go out that far. But I guess if you're the National Association of Realtors, you can do that. I would never do that, but look at these numbers. In 1970, the average price was $23,000 for a home in the United States. In 2020, the average US price was 300.

Ours is higher cause well, we have our own little mini economy here, lack of economy, depending on the year. But then you start looking out into 20 30, 20 40, and 2050. And we see, we see significant increases in equity, in home prices. So and that's on the national scale in southern [00:04:00] Oregon, we have a, a higher desirability, a higher lifestyle attractiveness and sense the covid.

And remote workers, we've been discovered even more so than before. So my prediction for Southern Oregon is that we will keep pace with inflation, maybe do a little bit better and we'll see. We'll check this next year and the year after, but if you're planning on getting a really good deal because of a market event, the 2023 may not be it.

This might be the best it's gonna be. We've got prices down, but equity is still up. So, you know, we went way up. Because of the inflation and covid and then we settled down, but we're still above where we were last year. And it's very interesting cuz we track it every week that Jackson County, Josephine County and Klamath Counties are up.

We'll see how we end 2022, but right now we're anywhere from 5% up to [00:05:00] 10%, maybe 11, depending on how Klamath and Josephine County settle by December 31st. So very interesting time. A lot of different opinions out there. Get the most information that you can when you're making your real estate decisions.

But remember, keep your eye on the life goal, which is to get an asset in your name. Okay. Okay. That's our podcast for today. If you've got any questions, reach out to me. I'm available by phone, by text, by email, (541) 301-7980. You can also check out all of our listings on my website.

Have a fabulous website, very robust. Lots and lots of great information. In addition to just listings, we've got community information, different sales statistics, lots and lots there to help you. The website is AliceLema.com, and as always, give me a jingle, give me a text if there's something that you wanna talk about in your real estate life. We're here to help you make the best decision [00:06:00] possible. Okay? All right. Have a beautiful week. Hug those you love. We'll see you next time. Bye now.