Real Estate Mid Year Predictions 2023

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2023 Mid-Year Predictions For The Housing Market

Alice Lema: [00:00:00] Well, Hey, real estate fans, Alice Lema here, broker, John L. Scott, beautiful Southern Oregon with another edition of the weekly podcast today, we're going to do 2023 mid year predictions. And I think you're in for some surprises now, you know. We've had a lot of volatility this year, and we're trying to get more people to put their house on the market because inventory is super low, but that's exactly why I'm going to make this mid year prediction.

And it's not just me. It's other housing people out there in the world are also saying that they're looking for price increases starting in fourth quarter 2023, which would be September, October, November, but here in Southern Oregon, we're already seeing snippets of price increases in all three counties.

So Klamath County led the way a couple of weeks ago, we started seeing some little year over year increases. This week we had Jackson [00:01:00] County, Josephine County have some very small year over year price increases. Interestingly enough, we also had all three counties with one foreclosure close. Normally, we have in a normal market, we have a lot more foreclosures.

It's really part of our normal inventory but because everybody has so much equity, we just don't have that many. But we did start having a few. So it was interesting that this last week and you can see in my market stats report this week, all three counties had one. We also are starting to see the million dollar sales, start to get scooped up.

They've had almost 18 months or two years of Inventory in that price point. So now that those are starting to sell again, we're starting to think that we are at the bottom. So here we are in mid-July 2023. And so the prediction is gonna be based on the ongoing [00:02:00] shortage of inventory and prices trying to move up a little bit, at least in Southern Oregon.

I'm gonna predict that we're gonna have some price increases as part of the normal market starting in fourth quarter 2023. And part of why I'm making this prediction is I want to show you this graph. This is from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, and it's showing housing inventory from January, 2017, all the way to June, 2023.

So starting in 2023, there's a little dippity doo going up there, but I want you to look back over time from 2017, what more of a normal inventory looks like, and it's just a downward downward decline there with a little bit of an uptick in 2022, a downturn in 2023 with a little bit of an uptick just in the last few [00:03:00] months.

So based on that, I'm thinking that the prices are stabilizing right now and they're gonna start going up. I don't predict a significant price increase because of the interest rates. The buyer pool monthly mortgage just is not going to accommodate any big spikes in prices, but at least in our area, a lot of the buyers are still out there.

They're still writing offers and they're still getting their offers accepted. And owning houses, which is, which is what we're all about. So with that in mind, if you're thinking of selling any time in the next maybe 12 months, you might want to consider trying to get your property on the market between now and the end of the year, or as early as possible next year, only because when word gets out that the prices might start going up, we usually [00:04:00] get a big flood of sellers. So right now, if you're selling or thinking of selling, you have this little sweet spot where you don't have very much competition. And you still have buyers. If you're buying, then I would suggest still follow your course, stay in touch with your lender.

If the interest rates continue to go up, it will affect the prices, but the market is behaving as though we're just about done with the interest rate increases. And maybe if the interest rates go down, buyers pay attention because you will see some kind of a reaction from the sellers where they'll start getting away with raising their prices back up.

Now, it won't be immediate. There's always a lifetime when we have these big shifts in the market. But if you're buying, consider getting it done now. So that You're locked in and then if the rates go down later, you can refinance. You can also [00:05:00] buy your points down, that's that's working. We're getting people down 1 or 2 points. We had somebody close just a week or so ago and they closed in the high fives. But it was because they gave the lender money to buy the interest rate down. So that's my prediction for the rest of 2023. We'll check back at the end of the year and see if I'm right.

In the meantime give me a call, give me a text. If we can talk about what you want to do in your real estate life, I'm a great listing agent, great buyer's agent, work a lot with first timers, downsizers, do a lot of rural property and waterfront. So give me a call. Give me a jingle do great with investments as well. And if you're a tenant, would love to talk to you.

Let's see if we can get you your own place. How about that? My number is 541 301 7980. See you next week. Hug those you love. Bye now.