Real Estate Predictions VS Reality

Real Estate Predictions VS Reality

Full Video Transcript Below

Real Estate Predictions VS Reality

[00:00:00] Well, hey, real estate fans, Alice Lema here, broker John Scott in beautiful southern Oregon with the last podcast of 2022. And we're gonna compare to the predictions that we made this time last year cuz some of 'em are like way off and some of them are spot on. So it'll be fun. The final numbers will be out mid-January and we'll go back and compare.

The final data, but we've got enough to go on now, . So and just a quick note, if you wanna talk to me about your real estate, get ready for next year. My number's (541) 301-7980. You can call or text. Yeah, there you go. Okay, so let's get right to it. Let's start with the interest rate. Because the interest rates right now are 6.2, 6.3.

They were in the sevens not that long ago, but you're gonna laugh when you hear what the predictions were. This time last year Fannie Mae thought the interest rates would only go to 3.3. Freddie Mac thought they might go to 3.5. The Mortgage Brokers Association said it might go to [00:01:00] four for 2022. And National Association of Realtor said 3.5. So everybody way off, like double almost. Okay. Well that's, yeah.

Okay. Let's talk about the prices. Now the prices are interesting because it was predicted this time last year that the prices would go up a little bit in a sustainable fashion, and that's why the Federal Reserve Bank was doing all these interest rate increases, was to try to slow down the the price increase, the, the inflation hyperinflation.

So, and interestingly enough our prices are up, at least in, in Jackson County, Josephine and Klamath County. Jackson County is up 4% from this time last year in prices, and Josephine County is up 5% and Klamath County is up eight. And again, in two weeks, in the middle of January we'll have our final numbers, but that's, you know, a little more sustainable appreciation.

So maybe we should call the [00:02:00] feds and tell 'em we're fine here and they can stop raising our interest rates. what do you think about that? That would be lovely if they would listen to us and then the number of home sales that were projected this time last year was predicted to still be strong and it wasn't.

Well, it, it, we had more of a balanced market, so I don't wanna say it's strong, it's just we keep comparing the activity to what it was in 2021 and 2020 where it was like a frenzy, like Lennox likes to call it. And this year the number of home sales is down a little bit. It's dramatically down, but the prices are up, the quantity is down, and this is where I got egg on my face because I thought with the rising interest rate, there'd be a lot more inventory, a lot more homes to choose from, and that would spur on a higher volume of, of home sales, at least in the residential market. The commercial market we're gonna have to talk about in [00:03:00] January, cuz there are some pretty big shifts in the economy that affect that.

But for residential, I thought there were gonna be a higher number of sales completed in the residential sector, and they weren't, but it wasn't that bad. And so that's our comparison for 2022. This time last year for 2023. I wanna go on the record that it's gonna be pretty much like it is now. It's more of a balanced market.

Our days on market in all three counties are somewhere between 40 and 60. They've been kind of you know, hanging there, that's about two months. A normal market is more like four months to six months. But I think the inventory shortage, we still, even though we have more homes to sell than we did this time last year, it's still not enough.

And because of the economic uncertainty, a lot of people are telling me they just wanna wait. The problem is that there's almost the perfect storm right now. The interest rates are down, at least from [00:04:00] where they were, and the prices are down. The prices are down a little bit, so I think it's a great time to sell because the buyers have a little bit more flexibility.

I also think it's a great time to buy because There's still some great deals out there. So it's, it's a personal choice. It's hard to decide. I know people are nervous, but if you just look at the data and then look at your own life and ask yourself, are you really in love with where you live? Are you happy with where you live?

Is it, is the building, meeting your needs and helping you live your best life? Because if it's not, this might be a good time to look into buying and selling. You also might wanna think about getting an investment property at this time. The prices the prices that, like I said, are coming down little by little, but we just don't see a crash.

So that's my prediction. No crash in 2023, but that's based on supply and demand, and the interest rates coming down. And there's still being quite a bit of activity. We're still going into escrow. Even during the holidays, we're still listing new properties. So, so those are [00:05:00] my predictions. I think the interest rates. I'll go back to supply and demand because as long as we don't have enough properties to sell, then the prices will still have some buoyancy.

And it's okay to go from, you know, a 30 day supply to a a 60 or 90 day supply. It creates more of a normal market. I also predict that we will have a steady appreciation in 2023, somewhere between five and 10%, which is kind of normal for, Southern Oregon.

Okay, so check back this time next year. Let's see if I'm right. I hope you have a fabulous holiday weekend. Thank you so much for supporting and listening all year to the podcast. It's been great. We look forward to some fun stuff we're gonna add for next year. So we'll announce that in early January.

In the meantime, hug those you love and we'll see you next week. Thanks for a great year. Bye.

Post a Comment