Real Estate Show with Mike Kerlinger President Elect Rogue Valley Association of Realtors

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Real Estate Show with Mike Kerlinger

Alice Lema: [00:00:00] Well, top of the morning folks and welcome back elect of Rogue Valley Association of Realtors, Mike Kerlinger, and he's also a John L. Scott agent here in Southern Oregon. One of my favorite agents to work with.

Mike will be joining us in a quick minute. Before he comes on, let's take a second and look at our local statistics. Just a reminder, these are single family residential only. Other kinds of real estate have other kinds of statistics. So we're all over the board this week. We're doing year over year. We're watching the trends go up and down and, and try to stabilize.

But let's start with Klamath County. Prices in Klamath County year over year this week are down 19% to an average $274,339. The number of solds year over year this week in Klamath County are down 38% but the number [00:01:00] of listings year over year this week in Klamath County are up 11%. So congratulations, Klamath County. You've got some people putting their houses on the market badly needed. Yay for you.

Let's look at Josephine County next. The prices year over year this week in Josephine County are down 3% to an average $530, 814. Wow, that's really something. But Josephine County prices are still down three percent. Josephine County number of solds year over year this week are up a whopping 75 percent. And the number of listings in Josephine County year over year are down 17 percent. So you see what I mean. It's all over the board, folks. But this is the year over year check to watch things stabilize.

Jackson County is last on our list this week. Prices are up year over year this week in Jackson County, a [00:02:00] whopping 18% to an average $639,721. Congratulations to Jackson County on that year over year number this week. The number of sold in Jackson County year over year this week is down 30%. And the number of listings year over year this week in Jackson County are down 24%. So fits and starts folks, fits and starts. We're trying to get the prices back up a little bit. We're trying to get the inventory back up and we're trying to get our escrows closed. So again, it's still a seller's market, especially in the lower price ranges.

We still have more buyers than sellers. So if you're thinking about putting your house on the market, might want to call your agent and get it to happen sooner than later. In the meantime, we're going to have Mike Kerlinger of John L. Scott, the president elect of Rogue Valley Association Realtors. We'll be right back.

Well, Hey, Southern Oregon, [00:03:00] welcome back to the real estate show. Boy, we're glad you could join us today. We have such a treat. We have Mike Kerlinger in the house. He's actually a John L. Scott agent. One of my favorite agents to work with, but he is the president elect RVAR Rogue Valley Association of Realtors incoming president. So we're super happy to have you Mike. Thanks for joining us.

Mike Kerlinger: Yeah, good morning.

Alice Lema: So we have so much to talk about. But let's give the audience a quick feel for who you are and what you do in RVAR. And then you also mentioned you were on kind of an important committee for real estate here locally.

Mike Kerlinger: Yeah, so I got roped into working with a Rogue Valley Association realtors board pretty early on. And I say roped in in a good way it's been a really good experience. So I've had good people around me who have pushed me to attempt to excel and learn as much as I can and engage in the industry. So [00:04:00] last year I was approached and someone asked me to run for president elect.

And I said, yes, because I'm a yes, man, that's our structure as I spend a year as president elects. And then in 2024, I'll be the president and then following year will be a immediate past president, which just leaves me a position on the board. And it provides a nice little bit of longevity. So no one shows up for just one year tries to mix things up and then disappears and can't see a project through.

So we, we help engage with the public. We help set policy for the realtor association and, and how our business and our clients are gonna operate.

Alice Lema: So just to feather that out a little bit Rogue Valley Association of Realtors has a mission and they do amazing work in the community. Can you just speak briefly to kinda what they do and who they are?

Mike Kerlinger: Yeah. The focal point of our organization is to protect home ownership and to protect personal property rights. [00:05:00] I really enjoy the dynamic of board level work. It's not quite as litigious in my opinion, in this industry as it can be in others, because more often than not, the goals of our board and of our members are the same as the goals of our clients.

We're not often put in a position where we have to butt heads with that. We all want people to be able to own homes. We all want people to have personal property rights that allow them to enjoy living there. So I like it. It's it's a good way to engage with the industry but also to try to engage with the public and attempts to help them understand the process of why we do this job and how it looks. And hopefully the benefits of homeownership after we get a chance to talk with them.

Alice Lema: And speaking of which on the home ownership side we do have agent fluctuation kind of levels of how many agents we have in Southern Oregon [00:06:00] at any given time. How is that going? Are we still getting new people coming into the business?

Mike Kerlinger: We are actually, we have about 1300 and change right now might be up to about 1350. And it has new membership has come down a little bit this year, but not as much as might have been expected with the way the market's been going. So we're still pretty strong.

Alice Lema: Oh, that's really good. That's really good. And new agents. Come into RVAR and they get a certain amount of orientation. Some classes available education. Yes. What's that like?

Mike Kerlinger: We completely mixed up our onboarding this year and we went from a for 4 to 5 hour long fire hose of information that, frankly, was not that engaging to an onboarding class. Where we'll have a couple of board members actually there to have a much more conversational interaction with the new agents. The focal point of that is [00:07:00] to discuss ethics and professionality professionalism, excuse me, in the industry. But then that also leads to a drip campaign, so they're learning fair housing. They're learning ethics. They're learning how to engage with other agents and how to represent their clients, but it's not just throwing an overwhelming amount of information at them. And we've gotten a really good feedback that this conversational dynamic has been so much more engaging for the new agents.

Alice Lema: Well, that's awesome because ongoing education is important in a lot of industries, but I think our local Rogue Valley Association Realtor does an amazing job of keeping the agents up to speed on what's happening legally and market wise.

Mike Kerlinger: I had no idea how high of a level RVAR was operating at until I got involved on the board. When we go to conferences, nationally, people are looking to us and asking our advice on how we're doing it.

Alice Lema: Wow. And we're kind of a small demographic, aren't we?

Mike Kerlinger: Yeah. Yeah. We're a small, we [00:08:00] might, I can't remember if we jumped up into the medium sized board. I think we're still considered a small organization. The, the level that it executes at is just really high. And that's a testament to the staff we have at RVAR and also MLS, but also the agents who have been involved and set the precedent up to now.

Alice Lema: Mm hmm. Mm hmm. Well, it's something to definitely be proud of. So speaking of the national level, there's a lot of conversation with buyers and sellers about what's going on on the national level. What are you hearing from people.

Mike Kerlinger: Market wise or legislatively?

Alice Lema: Well, let's, let's go to market for a minute.

Mike Kerlinger: Okay. Okay. The world's falling apart. Dooms. No if you spent too much time on Facebook, that's probably what you think.

I will go to my grave reminding people that headlines are intended to catch your attention and [00:09:00] disrupt your patterns. That's what they do. They're not actually providing you a whole lot of information, because if I headline says the housing market is fairly stable, and we think it'll stay the same, we're all going to die.

The reality is it's not. Oh, how do I say it? I'm very sensitive to how volatile the last year has been. The last year and a half. There's a lot of people saying, well, 7% interest rates aren't that bad. In the eighties, we had 14, 18% interest rates. And that's true. The caveat is we're coming off of 11% inflation.

That number might be a little higher than it actually came out as, as well as 16 to 20% home price appreciation, and 7% interest. And all those things combined are what's making it a difficult time. But the idea of [00:10:00] The market crashing or the industry coming to an end. There's just not evidence to support that.

It's, it's exciting to say that, I guess, depending on who you're talking to. But the data doesn't support that we're seeing pretty, we saw a dip in pricing earlier this year. It's already leveling off, especially here locally. Interest rates. The hard part was interest rates doubled in six months.

7% is not that high, but we've never doubled in such a short period of time. And like I said, I'm very sensitive to the impact that has on buyers. I mean, I only bought my house less than 10 years ago. So I remember watching the rates wondering what's going to happen. But they're not going to get up into the 9 or 10% range.

Lenders just simply aren't going to do that and home prices are not going to plummet because there's not enough homes. I don't care if interest rates go up to 14%. Again, people still need a place [00:11:00] to live. We don't have enough homes to sell to the people who need them.

Alice Lema: And that's a very interesting dynamic of this market is I'm old enough I remember what happened in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. Even though I was Not old enough to buy a house per se, but I remember watching all that and listening to the neighbors and my parents and it was a completely different economic situation with very high unemployment back then. And now we don't have the unemployment situation so that is a dynamic that changed, but the extreme pace of that interest rate increase was a lot for the market to absorb. But it seems to have happened somewhat successfully, although bloody, doesn't it seem like the market has just kind of shoved it down their throats and marched on. [00:12:00]

Mike Kerlinger: A little bit. I mean, home listings are down. Pending sales are down. Closed sales are down year over year. But yeah, I mean, people still need a place to live. And you just said something that that triggered a thought for me. There's there's certain elements at play. I'm sensitive to the fact that wages have not kept up with the cost of living. I'm sensitive to the fact that taxes have gone up in a lot of areas.

I'm sensitive to the fact that people are working multiple jobs. Part of the reason unemployment is low is people have taken on a second job. Which is what our last jobs report showed. I think it's important to recognize that, but I also understand I can't fix that. I'm not paying someone else's wages.

I'm an independent contractor. I'm not a legislator who's voting on tax breaks or minimum wage increases or any of those things. And then real estate, I can help you [00:13:00] strategically get a home that's going to work for you in a manner that's going to be most successful. So while I empathize with those situations, I mean, my cost of living has gone up too.

I'm focusing on what I can do to help people, not on the potential hurdles. I'll refrain from going too far down that rabbit trail. Cost of education and cost of living has skyrocketed over the last 40 years relative to wages. And that's a problem.

Alice Lema: Yeah. And that was, that's a, that's a big difference between the last time the interest rates jacked up and, and, and this time. Yeah, that's a good point.

Mike Kerlinger: So I get it. I'm not telling people, Oh, everything's fine. We're happy and cheery. I understand the struggles, but the reality is I can't fix those myself. But on top of that, those are tangential to our industry. And are not going to be factors that cause the market to crash.

Alice Lema: Yeah. Yeah. And it's the thing I'm noticing [00:14:00] with buyers and sellers, especially if they have some remembrance of the 0 8, 0 9, depending on when your neighborhood went down. That huge housing crisis we had a while back, it feels similar to them and that's, what's scary is it has that same sense of that sluggishness. And I think that's what scares people is it feels a little bit familiar.

Mike Kerlinger: Which is fair. I mean, there are to say that the market is just amazing and healthy and everything better. Obviously we know that's not true. There's struggles in the market. There's not adjustable rate mortgages that people have. There's not stated income loans that people have. There's not as many second homes as people have leading into the crash as a nation, we'd borrowed over 800 billion in equity against second homes. And we're less than a quarter of that number now. And we had 11 [00:15:00] months of inventory and now we have one.

So I understand if you just look at the surface, Oh man, the market's slow. Oh, homes aren't selling. Oh, the crash is about to come. It's just a false ,parallel because all the other data is so far different from the last crash. And I think the hard part is, especially for, for younger people, you're young Gen X, you're millennials, you're Gen Z.

We've lived through the 08 crash. And now the pandemic market and those realistically are once, maybe twice in a lifetime circumstances. So now people have this strange expectation of every 10 years, the market's going to completely implode.

Alice Lema: Yeah, that's right.

Mike Kerlinger: And we lived through some crazy experiences, but those are not likely to repeat.

Alice Lema: And if they do, again, we would at least have, I would think some warning because of the economic conditions. Folks, we're talking to Mike Kellinger one of my favorite agents at John L. Scott, but he's [00:16:00] also the president elect of the Rogue Valley Association of Realtors. And he's also on some really important committees for real estate here locally. We do have to take a quick break. We're going to be right back with Mike as soon as we say thank you to John L Scott, Ashland and Medford, our local Rogue Valley Association of Realtors and Guy Giles of Mutual Mortgage. Do not touch that dial. We'll be right back.

Well, welcome back to the real estate show folks. I'm Alice Lema. I'm a broker with John L. Scott real estate here in beautiful Southern Oregon. And today it is my great joy to be interviewing Mike Kerlinger of John L. Scott real estate, but he's also our present elect of the Rogue Valley association of Realtors. Thanks for joining us, Mike.

Mike Kerlinger: Yeah, of course.

Alice Lema: So before the break, we were talking a lot about the similarities and the differences between this sluggish market. I don't know what to call it. This weird market and kind of what [00:17:00] happened during the crash. And you were just elaborating on some of the economic fundamentals that are different, like unemployment and a couple of other things. Just wanted to expand on that and then start talking about, you know, if we have all this going on, why do we have a housing shortage.

Mike Kerlinger: Yeah, well, a couple of key factors that are very different from 08 to now, in 2008, there was much looser lending standards. Anyone who's been paying attention has probably heard that before, but people were getting adjustable rate mortgages without understanding them.

They weren't understanding closing costs. They were getting stated income loans. It was a much less stable lending environment. By now, we should all know that is largely what led to the crash. Other differences, though, is the amount of equity people had borrowed against their home. So when you leverage your home and you owe as much or more as the home is worth, that leads to people walking [00:18:00] away.

This stat is dated, this is from sometime late last year, but the average homeowner, I think, had 70, 000 in equity in their home.

Alice Lema: And now they have more.

Mike Kerlinger: Exactly. So, even if people get into dire straits, If your house is worth 300, 000 and you owe 350, 000, you're going to walk away from that house and you're going to take the hit to your credit and you're going to start to rebuild.

But if you flip that, if you owe 300, 000 and the house is worth 350, 000 and you get, you're not going to get foreclosed on. You're going to sell your house and you're going to pay it off and you're going to walk away with 10, 20 30 thousand dollars, in your pocket. Now, if the market does start to dip. So now you have to sell your house for 330. Bummer. You're going to walk away with 10, 000 instead of 30. You're still not going to let your house get foreclosed on. So this flood of foreclosures that people are predicting, there's no data to support that. And then the other [00:19:00] key factors is a balanced market is considered six months of inventory.

Alice Lema: Right? Good point.

Mike Kerlinger: Leading into 2008, we had, I think, 11 months in most markets. So we had an excess of inventory. Supply and demand was way out of whack, but people were still getting into bidding wars. They were being told they had to. Everyone should buy a house.

There was a rush to buy houses. So you have five people offering on one house, even though there's four more houses down the street to choose from. We're opposite today. I actually just got these new stats. I'm going to pull this up real quick while we're chatting.

Alice Lema: Well, and I think one of the interesting points you just made while you're, while you're bringing those up is really watching the foreclosure rate is super important because that will calm a lot of the, the nervousness that people experience, because we are nowhere near a normal, healthy foreclosure rate. Foreclosures are supposed to be right a pipeline into the market.

Mike Kerlinger: We, I [00:20:00] think, just earlier this year started to reach the same foreclosure rate that we had had prior to the pandemic. Now, I would like to just erase the last 3 years from real estate history because the pandemic was such a weird market, but we can't. So ignoring those tumultuous years we just had, our rates of foreclosure are what they were back in 2018, 19 healthy, boring market, right?

Alice Lema: So that's the part is there is a natural percentage of foreclosures and the market depends on that. And without it, it kind of makes the market suffer a little bit, right?

Mike Kerlinger: But people. The reason home prices plummeted and so many people entered the market 2008 and following was a flood of foreclosures because people were underwater in their homes when you have right now, so here we go. Zero to 250, 000 Jackson County has two months of inventory, two 50 to three 51. [00:21:00] 8, three 50 to five 1. 8. 500 to 700, 3. 1. 750 and above, we start to see the market soften a little bit. So we have a shortage of inventory, even if we got flooded with foreclosures, which is not going to happen because people have equity in their home we would still be in a seller's market. So.

Alice Lema: Yeah, but that's very counter to what people are hearing on the big platform, social media and the news, isn't it?

Mike Kerlinger: Well, and again, like I said in the previous segment there's some reliable news sources. Yes, I'm not going to say that all media or news is bad, but if you and I are having a conversation and I say, hey, Alice, I know the market's been kind of wonky this last year. I know it's a little bit nerve wracking, but here's the numbers. Here's why it might make sense for you to buy or sell now. [00:22:00] Or under your personal circumstances maybe wait, I'll tell everybody firehouse. Let's talk about it.

But if I write a headline that says the market has been a little volatile, but it's fairly stable. And if, if you're considering buying a house now might be a good time. I'm very exciting. That's not going to scare you into reading it. You're going to think, oh, okay, cool. The market's okay. Doesn't mean saying, hey, Alice, your car's running, it's running pretty well.

Alice Lema: Oh, it's like getting a good dental checkup, huh? No cavities.

Mike Kerlinger: No one's going to click on a headline that says your car will probably continue running fine. If I write a headline that says your brakes are about to catch on fire, now there's going to be some urgency. So most of what you're going to read is trying to cause urgency because the reality is they need you to click on their link to make money.

Alice Lema: Yep. Yep. So do your [00:23:00] buyers understand that They are still going to have to arm wrestle a little bit. How, what's the perception from the buyer pool? Do you think right now?

Mike Kerlinger: A lot of people on my initial conversations think they may have a lot more leverage than they do, or that they can low ball. The reality is now some sellers haven't come to terms with the fact that they're not getting 20% appreciation this year.

Some people are still overpricing and those homes do wind up selling for less than list price. A well priced home is still going to sell relatively quickly because again, there's just not many options to choose from. And people still need a place to live.

Alice Lema: If you go back and check the stats over a couple decades that that 30 day window is actually really pronounced. And what I mean by the 30 day window and john Lennox Scott, the owner [00:24:00] of us talks about a lot is getting your house sold in the first 30 days. And it's not actually a function of a fast market. There's actually some normalcy to that if you price it right and it's ready to rock and roll. I just thought that was fascinating that 30 days you should sell your house in 30 days and that that's okay.

Mike Kerlinger: I had to remind myself the last few years were so crazy as we came out of that. I would have a listing on market for A week with no offers. And I thought, Oh my gosh, what's wrong. What did I do? This is crazy. And I had to remind myself, no, wait, before this pandemic market, whatever we want to call it. I didn't even have a conversation about whether we needed to do anything to pricing or marketing until three and a half weeks in, that was normal at 30 days.

If you haven't had some good activity, you may need to [00:25:00] revisit something. Repairs, credits, pricing, marketing. We were conditioned for so long, for two or three years, that it had to go right now. And that's not normal. Again, it's the crash and the pandemic. We're more than likely once in a lifetime circumstances for everyone, but they were too extreme to stop comparing them.

Alice Lema: Yes. Right. Like after each other and our heads are spinning, but yeah, how, so how do you explain this to let's, let's talk about sellers now. How do you explain all this to sellers.

Mike Kerlinger: Data I understand the emotion. I understand the headlines. But if you just look at statistics, like you said, 30 days on market historically is fine. Six months of inventory. Personally, I actually think for a balanced market, a little less than six, [00:26:00] should be considered balanced these days because. Consumers have so much more access to information because you don't need to go get a book and flip through the book, the new listings, right? You can go look at any listing you could possibly want to see by yourself online in the middle of the night, 8% of yeah and then text me about it at 11:30. 98% of consumers. See their house online for the first time. I'm sorry. That's a bit of a tangent. So I think a little bit less than six months is reasonable.

95% sale price to list price is historically where our market rides. So when someone's concerned that they're only getting an offer for 98%, that's a good offer historically. That's great. Yeah. It's just a matter of, of putting things in the right perspective. [00:27:00]

Alice Lema: Yeah. Yeah. And, and trying to help people understand the data. I'm so happy to hear you say that because data doesn't lie. So it's, it's tough, you know? And then do you find that the perception in the market of both buyers and sellers is a little bit old. Like they're not really in the real time moment and which is a function of the digitalization of real estate. Yes. And so they've got these older ideas. How do you talk to them about yeah, that was then, but this is now kind of thing.

I

Mike Kerlinger: think again, it has a lot to do with data. I like to get a little hyperbolic when trying to help people understand what we need to look at. So in 2000 and 2021, I think the average listing was getting eight offers. [00:28:00] And was going for in Jackson County, actually 101 point in time, the average sale price to list price was 101%.

I mean, that's crazy. Those numbers that was prior to inflation, it was prior to 2 trillion getting pumped into the economy. It was prior to interest rates doubling. So again, to be hyperbolic I don't care about the numbers from 2021 any more than I care about the numbers from 1981. It's dated information.

Alice Lema: I love that.

Mike Kerlinger: It's not relevant in today's market. And gently, no matter how much we want something to be, true the data from today's market is what it is. If someone feels their house is worth 400, 000 and you look at it and you think it, we thought it was, it should have been. And it's on the market for two months with no [00:29:00] offers and no price reductions. I'm sorry. It's not worth 400, 000.

Alice Lema: Yeah, the market speaks loudly that way through its silence. Folks, we're talking to Mike Kerlinger from John L. Scott Real Estate. He's our incoming president elect of Rogue Valley Association of Realtors and just a really knowledgeable fun person. We're so glad you could be on the show, Mike.

Mike Kerlinger: Yeah. Thank you. Thank you for having me again.

Alice Lema: Yep. We've got one more segment to go. We've got to take a quick break and then we're going to wrap it up with Mike Kerlinger of John L. Scott Real Estate. Do not touch that dial. We got more great information coming in just a moment.

Well, welcome back folks to the Real Estate Show.

We're talking to Mike Kerlinger, John L. Scott, Real Estate and also the President Elect of Rogue Valley Association of Realtors. Just a quick note before we jump back in talking to Mike, this broadcast will be repeated tomorrow, Sunday at 6pm on this [00:30:00] very same station, KCMX. FM 99. 5. So Mike gosh, we're covering a lot of territory today and it's really fun. We were talking a little bit about market perceptions from buyers and sellers. What have you got to say about the buyer's dynamic?

Mike Kerlinger: So I will start with the caveat of things can change quite quickly as we have seen. I'm so sick of talking about COVID. However, that obviously disrupted a lot. So take this with a grain of salt because if the world goes haywire, predictions can change. That being said, I have had multiple conversations lately with people who are waiting for the market to crash before they buy their next house.

Alice Lema: Oh, so those are buyers.

Mike Kerlinger: Yes, they've been saying it since 2017. It has not gone well. [00:31:00] I'm not going to do all the, the number dump on you. You can contact me if you like contact. I can give you the background on this. But if you run the numbers and you purchase a house for 400, 000 at a 7% interest rate, which is what we're looking at right now, I don't have my whole calculator right in front of me. So I might not have these numbers perfectly. I believe 400, 000 at 7% your monthly payment is 3195 a month.

Alice Lema: Which I think is high for Southern Oregonians.

Mike Kerlinger: Oh yeah. No, it's high. I'm sensitive to that. I'm not going to argue whether or not that's a reasonable mortgage. I'm just looking at numbers that takes into account certain credit scores, private mortgage insurance, insurance costs.

That being said, using those same variables, when interest rates go down, and we do think they're going to go down, there will be a lot of people who jump back into the market. There are people who can't purchase at 7%, that's fine. They're going to get down to, I think I, I think I [00:32:00] went only down to 6%, maybe five and a half.

I think five and a half is a little optimistic. But if we there's going to be a lot more competition. Competition leads to higher home prices. So, that same house that might be 400 today, give it 2 years. If that creeps up to 450, and you're purchasing at 5 and a half percent interest rate, using the exact same numbers for private mortgage insurance, homeowners insurance and taxes. Your monthly payment on that is $3159.

Alice Lema: And you didn't get to collect the appreciation and you didn't have a home.

Mike Kerlinger: You could save 30 or 40 a month by waiting another year or two. The flip side of that is your, after you buy the house, your interest rate can change. You can refinance that interest rate. You can never change how much you bought the house for.

That's how much you paid for it. So buy a house for 400, 000. [00:33:00] You're getting the house for cheaper pay 7% interest. Refinance the five and a half and then your monthly payments will actually go down because you have a lower starting loan to value. Don't buy it for 450 and fight over it because there's that stress element when you're in a, what we call a seller's market.

Alice Lema: So, when people say a hot market, they're really talking about a seller's market and if you're in a full on seller's market, it's not only you're going to pay more, you're going to have to pay over appraised price. So, so that's stressful and it costs you more and that's cash. You can't finance that difference.

Mike Kerlinger: And it's, I'm just really big on making decisions for the right reasons. If now is not the right time for someone to buy a home, family dynamics, school dynamics, job dynamics. I get that. I would never pressure someone into buying a house when they're not ready. They're very good reasons to not buy a house.

If your reason to not buy a house [00:34:00] is that you're waiting for it to crash or waiting for rates to come down, you and a million other people are doing that same thing and it's not going to play out the way you expect.

Alice Lema: So do you think that's partly why people are not putting Do you think the sellers have that idea to that they're waiting for something to happen. Why aren't people putting their house on the market.

Mike Kerlinger: I, it's a self fulfilling prophecy. It's it's circular. There's not a lot on the market and the people who would sell their house needs something else to buy. So they're not going to list their house because there's nothing they can buy. So now their house has been on the market. So sellers aren't selling because other sellers aren't selling.

It's very circular. Now people with the interest rates, I, I do understand that a lot of people have a historically low interest rate. Which, and it does make it hard to sell when you have a 3% rate and sign at a 7% [00:35:00] rate. I do understand that, but a lot of it is also just self-fulfilling, right. Sellers may be disappointed when more inventory does come on and they decide they do want to move, but they find they're facing the same competition on their purchase as the buyers who have also been waiting.

Alice Lema: So I'm really liking the market right now for sellers, because if they have one of those low interest rates, then that tells me they probably have a bucket of equity and a much bigger down payment in a 7% interest rate environment, actually pencils really well, if you run the numbers.

Mike Kerlinger: Yep. If you bought your house and you got to take advantage of the appreciation over the last three or four years, and again, we can have a philosophical discussion about whether or not that's right. I'm not going to do that right now.

That's, that's why that's why [00:36:00] we tell people to buy homes and stay in them and build up the equity so you can step into a new investment. You can step into a new home for your new phase of life. So yeah, if you built up, people who put down 6, 000 to buy their house, because they bought their house a decade ago, it was 3%, down.

 They can put down 150, 000 on their next house. So it's still logical. Yeah. Not for everybody. Again, I'm not, I'm not one of those. No, I'm not. I'm not all sunshine and rainbows. Everything's happy. You should always buy homes. Some people should not buy a house right now. That's fine. But again, it's not nearly as dire as it's been presented.

Alice Lema: Well, and also every time people buy houses, they always worry that it's like, they always have that anxiety. Am I doing the right thing at the right time? And, and, you know, we look [00:37:00] back 10 years ago, like when you bought your house, we still worry. Is it going to appraise? We still worry. Should I wait? Should we jump? It's like that never changes. Every time you buy something, it's the same, same thought process.

Mike Kerlinger: It's always an investment spending that amount of money always has a little bit of liability with it. If anyone tells you differently, they're lying. We, we make the best decisions we can with the information we have available at the time.

Alice Lema: Yep. Well, and speaking of time, we just have a quick minute left. And because you're the incoming president elect of Rogue Valley Association of Realtors and an active agent, I just think that is a great, great combination. What, what kind of committees and what kind of work are you going to be doing here. Let's talk about that with the minute we have left.

Mike Kerlinger: Oh, I love it. So I'm involved in our Government Affairs Committee and the Realtors Political Action Committee. Don't throw [00:38:00] stones at me. Realtors Political Action Committee has, same as our association, we protect homeownership and private property rights. Historically on a national and local level, the Political Action Committee has supported 51% Republican and 49% Democratic candidates. And it's not about party. It is about protecting the rights of people in our community.

That's amazing. And sorry to cut you off, Mike. We're going to have you back. Mike Kerlinger, John L Scott. What's your number real quick?

5 4 1- 6 2 1 -7 1 1 1. Call me. You can text me.