Shortage of Houses even with High Interest Rates
Shortage of Houses even with High Interest Rates
Full Video Transcription Below
Shortage of houses still
Alice Lema: [00:00:00] Well, Hey, they're real estate fans, Alice Lema here, broker John L. Scott and beautiful Southern Oregon with another edition of the weekly podcast. Today, we're gonna talk about the shocking realization that at least in Southern Oregon, we still have a housing shortage. Even though sales are down and rates are up, there's still a shortage of houses to buy isn't that something. We're gonna talk about it.
So before we get to that, I wanna give you a quick second too. Give us a thumbs up, subscribe to the channel, send it to your friends and family. If you wanna talk to me personally, privately, there's the number up there somewhere, 541-301-7980.
Now onto the podcast. How can there be a housing shortage still when sales are down and rates are so high. Well, it's very interesting and the data doesn't lie. That's what we do. We go back to the data every time. So Jackson county right now is averaging three months of inventory. That means that there were no listings taken in Jackson county forever from now on, it would be 90 days that the houses would all sell. So the [00:01:00] interesting thing is that that is longer than it was this time last year, but it's still not long enough.
What do I mean by that? Gotta remind you a normal neutral market is four to six months, 120 days to 180 days. That means the buyers are not in charge. The sellers are not in charge. So if it's shorter than four to six months time, that's still a seller's market in Jackson county at least is at three months.
Now Josephine county is at four months. So Josephine county has four months of inventory as of July. And it's just remarkable though, that that's still not enough. We, we are normalizing, the market is settling down, even though we had that federal reserve report yesterday saying that the rates are gonna go up again. We still need more houses to sell. So this creates a very interesting and surprising opportunity that we were not hundred percent prepared for, but [00:02:00] here we go.
So on the seller side, you can still sell your house. In fact, because there's still a shortage. If you have what we jokingly call a cream puff house, that's the perfect, perfect, everything. Then you should do quite well. It does not mean that you can have any old price you want just like last year.
It's not like that. We're in a more normalizing market, more leveling off, but you'll still do well. If you're buying, I know the, the tendency right now as for buyers to overnegotiate because they're interpreting the softening of the market as as deeper than it really is. And I'm watching buyers push back too much.
And the sellers are just saying, I'll go back on the market. I'm gonna sell it to somebody else. And you know, when you look into the numbers, why the sellers feel like they can get away with that? It's because there's still not quite enough homes on the market. So if you're selling, I still suggest you be reasonable.
Cuz the whole reason you have a [00:03:00] sign in front of your house is cuz you wanted something to happen with that address so that you could go to the next step of your life. So if you're selling and you get reasonable offers, even if they're a little bit on the low side, still play ball because you have some life event you wanna get to.
And if you're buying, I guess it's the same. Kind of the same advice, fancy that to be moderate and get the house that you want, even if it's not quite stealing it. It's, it's okay to not steal a house and still be happy. You still have bragging rights at the barbecue right. You know, buyers just think about that. Cuz if you end up without a house and the shortage continues then, then what happens?
So interesting stats this time and just have to say the appraisals are coming in a little low now because we've had enough, a few months of these interest rate increases and the prices have come down enough that now [00:04:00] those are where the appraisals are. They're moderating too, and they're helping to moderate the market.
So if you're buying, look at those numbers, cuz that's about what the sellers are expecting. And if you're selling, look at those numbers, the appraisal numbers look at what's closed around you, cuz that's kind of the new, that's the new price range. And I know that's not what everybody wants to hear, but it's very interesting that with a shortage of inventory, then it creates another dynamic in the market that we just have to acknowledge.
So just wanna remind everybody. Try to be conscious of the leveling off. We're not in the hyper sellers market, but we're not in a crash by any means. So I think buyers and sellers both have to kind of reign it in a little and just look at the numbers, at least in Jackson county, 90 day cycle, that's still pretty quick.
Josephine county you're at 120 day cycle. So that's entering into leveling off land. But still there's more buyers and sellers just not buying as much. Okay. [00:05:00] So that's our talk for today. Give me a jingle if you want to discuss something in your real estate life. My number again is up there. 541-301-7890
have a beautiful weekend. Hug those you love. See you next time by now.