Volatility in the Real Estate Market Means Opportunities
Volatility in the Real Estate Market Means Opportunities
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Volatility in the Real Estate Market - Opportunites for Buyers and Sellers
Alice Lema: [00:00:00] Well, good afternoon real estate fans, Alice Lema here, broker John L Scott, beautiful Southern Oregon, another edition of the weekly podcast today. We're gonna talk about volatility, question mark, question mark. What are the opportunities for buyers and sellers? It's gonna be a good one and we're gonna cover the local stats cuz there's some very interesting things happening.
So before we get to that, give you a quick second to subscribe to the channel and thank you if you've already done that, really helps. Give us a like, thumbs. Send it to your friends send us some questions and comments and we will get back to you.
So let's get on with our podcast this week, volatility question mark, opportunities for buyers and sellers. So here we go, what's happening locally, I think is really gonna be interesting. You know, we've been tracking the weekly numbers, just looking for these micro changes. And so this week in Jackson county, our total active listings are up year to year from this week, this year to this week, last year.
[00:01:00] 56% more active listings in Jackson county than this time last year. But you know what of that 56% there weren't new ones. So this is the new number we're gonna start diving into. Yes, we have a lot of listings still on the market, but they're older listings. They're languishing. They're stagnant. The new listings this time, this year to this time last year in Jackson county are down 27%.
Josephine county the total active listings are up 37%, but they're down 28% if you look at just the new ones. So Josephine county, new listings on the market this week are down 28% .
Klamath county, total listing activity up 3%. So that's looking like it's starting to, to even out. And Klamath is one of our leading indicators. We like to watch that one. And then the new listings in Klamath county for this week, this year, to this [00:02:00] week, last year, they're down 25%. So we have a lot of listings on the market, but they're just kind of hanging around and anybody that is willing to put their house on the market, you have a good response because you're gonna see here in a few minutes, as we get to the end of the podcast, that we actually still have a housing shortage in the purchase market.
Isn't that interesting? So going back to the stats, cuz this is where we're laying the groundwork. So now we kind of understand the listing activity and it's the older ones that are still on the market that are bringing the percentages up. We're just not, we still don't have enough new ones, but I do wanna talk about the sales because that's where everything happens is in the closing room, right, at title.
So in Jackson county, This time, this year, to this time last year, we're down 37% Josephine county is down 30% and Klamath county is down in closings 28%. [00:03:00] So some of that might be summer cuz people are on vacation, but I don't know, those are kind of big numbers.
And I do know a lot of sellers and buyers are nervous just because of all the chaos and inflation and everything that's going on with the economy. And then lastly, I just wanted to point out another interesting statistic locally, because you're gonna see the fits and starts of our market here. Let's talk about the prices.
So Jackson county prices are up 14% from this time last year, this week, last year. Josephine county is down 11% from this time this year to this time last year. And Klamath county is down 1% in prices from this time, this year to this time last year. So why this is so interesting is look what we have. We have total active inventory up. By double digits, except for Klamath county.
We have the new listing inventory for this week, between this week, last year, this week, this year [00:04:00] down by double digit for the most part. And then our closings are down, but our prices are up. So isn't that interesting. So we're watching week to week this volatility, and that's what I wanted to talk about is where the opportunities are.
So if you're selling, we still have a low inventory situation. In fact I wanna show the national chart here from national association of realtors. This was published recently, you know how I like my charts and you can see that we really don't have a terrible situation, but we don't have a great situation.
You can see 2022 and 2023 2023 of course are gonna be predictions. But 2022, it looks like we're averaging, you know, right around where we were 2013, 2014. 2000, 2001. Those are not terrible numbers. [00:05:00] So, you know, we're trying to level off, we're trying to normalize some people use the word moderate.
And then 2023 is predicted to be similar to 2022. But again, you know, it depends on what chart you look at. It depends on what expert you talk to or listen to. So we do like to check a variety of data, data publications. But it all boils down to what's happening here in Southern Oregon, in Klamath county, Josephine county and Jackson county.
So having said all that, here's where I think the opportunities lie. Cuz no matter how strange things get, it always creates an opening for someone on one side or the other to jump in and have some success. Or you know, meet a life goal to own a home perhaps have a second home, maybe have some investment property.
So I'm saying it's really a good time to sell still the, the interest rates are fluctuating, but we still have buyers out there that wanna [00:06:00] jump in. We've lost a lot of our first time home buyers they're making some other arrangements. So the rental market is still pretty good, but it looks like our multi-family buildings, our entry level price point, and here in Southern Oregon, that would be up to maybe 425. I know that sounds high, but that actually is kind of our entry level price point. So with that in mind, it's still a pretty good time to sell.
And then our luxury market is still, has a lot of days on market. We don't have as many buyers for that, especially if you do not have high speed internet, then the luxury buyer is not so enticed. But if you've got a situation like that reach out to me because I have some ideas and they seem to be working.
In the meantime, the buyers still have some opportunity, but we're getting some buyers that are overnegotiating. They're thinking it's blood in the water. It's gonna be another crash. Nope. And you better watch out over negotiating your hand on [00:07:00] that one, Mr. And Mrs. Byer, because the sellers might play ball, but they might not. We've talked about that before. It's a little bit of a risky, risky biscuit there.
So here, if we are going into a little more normal market, yay for us. We're gonna watch all these different data points. It's not just about how many new listings we get, but how many did we get compared to last year? Are they getting absorbed by the buyer pool? We're still seeing problems with prices. The sellers seem to be dragging their feet on changing their prices because they keep thinking it was 90 days ago, which yes, I know 90 days ago is not that long, but you know, it's a completely different market.
So if you're a seller, listen up, you can still get this done and move on with the next step of your life, but you gotta be realistic about the prices. You gotta bring it down a little and you can tell by the offers you get, you can tell by the showings you get, or if you're not getting showings, if it's crickets dead silence, that [00:08:00] means you gotta do something about the price.
Maybe you gotta do something about the property, but every property is individual. So like I said, gimme a text, gimme a call my number's up here. (541) 301-7980. And we can chat about what you need to do. We can also give you some ideas.
There's still a bunch of people that wanna wait till spring. I don't know, I'm thinking if you wanna sell, you might as well do it now. The weather's good. We don't have too much smoke. Some days we don't have any smoke at all and the buyers are still out there. They're just a little slower. Now the buyer's a little more slow. They're a little more careful. But we're still, we're still closing properties. We're not closing as many as we did last, last year, this time, but we're still getting it done. So it's all very interesting. And I do find the price increases particularly fascinating because we had such a big run up and then everybody had to stop, dropping, dropping the prices.
And now I'm coaching sellers to like bring it down a little. And still the prices are are up. So there you go. That's what volatility looks like, but [00:09:00] there's opportunity for both sides in that kind of a market. So have a beautiful weekend.
Let me know if there's anything I can do to help would love to be your agent. I'm a great listing agent, great buyers agent, do great with first timers, downsizes, riverfront country, property investment, you know, got my fingers in a lot of pies. So hit me up and let's chat about what we can do for you. Talk to you later. Bye.