Reason Why Winter Home Sales Are Surging

Full Video Transcript Below

[00:00:00] Well, good afternoon, everybody. And welcome to the podcast. I'm Alice Lema broker, John L. Scott here in beautiful Southern Oregon with another edition of our weekly podcast. And today we're going to talk about the surge in winter home sales. It's not normal, but maybe it's the new normal. We'll have to see. But I want to talk about four reasons why it's happening and why it might continue to happen as the years go on.

[00:00:24] So with that in mind, I want to give you a quick minute to subscribe to the channel. Give us a thumbs up, share it with some friends or family. Leave me a comment. You can DM me and talk to me privately and we can get some things going for your personal real estate needs and wants. Okay. So with that, thank you so much.

[00:00:43] And let's talk about the surge in winter home sales. Is this going to be the new normal? So here we are late November, home sales are still pretty lively. We're not having our normal cooling off period, no pun intended. And here we are post Thanksgiving. Hope everybody had a good Turkey day. And we're just looking at the numbers and we're still seeing as much activity a lot of times as we do in early spring.

[00:01:08] So it brings up some interesting questions and some interesting answers. So number one, reason, why is we still have a lot of pent up demand from both sellers and buyers? You know, people waited. They're just now feeling comfortable. Just now getting around to making their decision, taking the action steps necessary to get out in the market and buy or sell or both.

[00:01:32] And then the ongoing interest rate dilemma, are the rates going up? If so, when blah, blah, blah. And you know, I don't know, I'm an older person I've watched the feds do so many weird things. I still say, get the property you can afford that makes you happy. And pull the trigger regardless. But it sure is nice to get a three point something than a five point something.

[00:01:54] So, but that ongoing contemplation people have about what's their payment going to look like if they wait, plus the pent up demand from the COVID. And also in our area, the Almeida fires is adding to this kind of surge through our fall and winter sales cycle. Which is not normally our normal, okay.

[00:02:15] Number two, we had a lot of fear of making changes during the COVID and post fire people really just took a wait and see attitude. And now they're ready to make a change. They're tired of waiting. Or they figured it out or they just don't care. They're just doing it. And again, a lot of it has to do with interest rates, but I think it's important to isolate that element of wait and see. So many people were afraid to make a change.

[00:02:44] Some people just didn't want to make a mistake, especially a lot of older people. You know, when you're older and you only have one move left. That is a much bigger deal to contemplate and to execute that downsize, that move in with the kids that assisted living, whatever you're doing, that is a big deal.

[00:03:02] And you don't want to get it wrong because you can't recover from it. And a lot of us older people kind of didn't make great real estate decisions at some point along the way. Or and it might not have even been our fault, but we made some kind of a mistake in the property we chose or the way the sale went down.

[00:03:19] And we just don't want to do that again or have that, or we can't afford to be wrong. So there was a lot of hesitation that is now just like the doors are open and people are just gushing into the market. And that is adding to some volume, not only volatility, but also more opportunity because we have more properties on the market to choose from. But it was that fear of change during the COVID and also post-fire in our area that really postponed people for making their next life life decision with their real estate. Okay, so that's number two.

[00:03:55] Number three, the ongoing quarantine comma mandate, comma, lockdowns, whatever you want to call it. This cumulation of I have to stay home. I can't go out. I can't go to my office. The kids can't go to school, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You know, and forget about tango dancing or whatever your hobbies were.

[00:04:16] You know, that lockdown and ongoing quarantine situation is really, really riveted in people's brains now. And this idea of, I have to make a change. I have to live somewhere else. I have to live in something else because I can't stand my house, my neighborhood, my whatever. It's not a desire anymore. It's a necessity.

[00:04:39] This, this idea of, I want this much space or this much yard or this kind of a location, has gone from being a nice to have to an absolutely have to have. So that is a huge moment in community's psyche or a person's psyche, where we go from desire to necessity. That really elevates the weight of the change, the move, the sale, the purchase, whatever, whatever people are doing.

[00:05:07] You know, having a nice home used to be a heart's desire. Now it's like, boy, I gotta have four bedrooms and an office. And a cottage because grandma's not going back to wherever she was. Or, you know, just everybody has their own scenario, but it's that idea that we just have to have a different floor plan, a different address, a different geographical location, and it's something that can wait anymore.

[00:05:34] It's also not something that we feel guilty about. It's not a guilty pleasure. It's part of what we need to make our life work. And that is a very important moment to acknowledge in a market that, that people are making these changes out of necessity more than desire okay.

[00:05:50] And people with school-aged children's, you know, the schools, even after some of them have shut down again. And the hybrid learning works for some kids, doesn't for others. And parents are just like over it and they're making whatever changes they need to make. Get it permanently into routine. Kids do better with a routine parents, do better with a routine and boom.

[00:06:09] And sometimes that means going somewhere else where you have more support, a lower cost of living. We're going to talk about that next, but this again, that just plays into the necessity versus desire element.

[00:06:20] Okay. And number four is the continued exodus from the more expensive parts of the nation or the world or the state that you live in, the more expensive high tax high cost of living. You know, maybe sprawled out. So now you're spending a fortune on gas and gas is ridiculous. So it says that idea that monetarily, our households either are not absorbing the inflation we're experiencing very well, or we just don't want to.

[00:06:48] And there's this, you can see, you can watch heat maps, they have population moving maps online, and the're really, really interesting to see where people are leaving from and where they're going to. And a lot of it has to do with the ability on the internet. And in literally 12 minutes, I, I tested it, 12 minutes online. You can find another place to go and have enough information that you're at least willing to put it on you know, the, maybe the maybe pad.

[00:07:15] And I find that just remarkable that people can do that, that we can do that. And our employers are a lot more supportive of that as long as we can, you know, perform our duties. So, you know, and try to get a moving truck from the west coast to someplace in the Midwest. It's very, very expensive, but yet they'll let you have it for free if you're coming the other direction.

[00:07:37] So there's all these things happening that, that show us that people are leaving the more expensive places to live and going to either the less expensive places or just a better lifestyle, lower cost of living, lower taxes. You know, maybe, family-wise or extended family wise more support that kind of thing.

[00:07:56] But there is this continued Exodus of movement. People are changing their address to change their life, which is, which is my slogan. Change your address, change your life, but that's happening right now. And I think that's, what's going to continue.

[00:08:11] And this is my prediction. This is only by Alice, but you know how I love to make my predictions, but I'm thinking that based on what we've seen in the community reaction and the employment reaction, the labor, the labor reaction to the COVID and the real estate market reaction. That what if we end up with what's kind of a flat market, as far as sales, like we had the same amount of sales in the winter now, as we do in the spring and fall. It's not seasonal. What if it's not seasonal anymore? And I'm basing that prediction because it's not based on location anymore.

[00:08:50] I mean, it is, but it's not. So we don't have to live in San Jose for example, to work for Google. You can live in South Carolina. Maybe, maybe Google will let you do that, but it's, it's just an idea. Maybe I shouldn't be naming names, but the idea is maybe you can have a really great job and work remotely and keep that level of income that you had and live somewhere else. Or it's just a, you know, a more enjoyable lifestyle for you.

[00:09:13] But this idea that we have to wait until school's out. So what if we don't really have a back to school? What if we continue for some number of years or permanently semi-frequently with this hybrid option? Waiting to see if more variants come on.

[00:09:29] So what, what, but at the idea is what if it just stabilizes throughout the year and there's no up and down in the sales volume. Because the deadlines are gone. And the idea of location to some respects has gone. I just, I just find that so interesting. So anyway, that's my prediction and we'll see if I'm right.

[00:09:50] We'll check back next year. We'll check back the year's coming and see, but it could very easily just even out, you know, that there's really no difference sales volume wise in moving in the winter, fall .You're going to still have properties to choose from. People are still going to put their house on the market.

[00:10:08] And that just at least in Southern Oregon, wasn't really the way things used to be. So we'll just have to see the surge in winter sales could be the new normal things. Could level out, but we'll see. Anyway, enough of that hope you have a beautiful rest of the weekend. I'm Alice Lema, broker John L.

[00:10:25] Scott here in Southern Oregon. I'm a great listing agent, great investment helper, great buyer's agent, great with tenants, downsizing, whatever you need. This is my bag work, both counties. So give me a call, give me a text 541-301-7980. I want to be your agent, have a beautiful what's left of the weekend.

[00:10:44] Talk to you next week. Bye now.